While reading about the Larkin Oil Case Study on decision analysis from the book Making Hard Decisions, I started to search online for documentaries about oil spills and ended up watching a documentary about the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill from 60 Minutes:
And my interest led me to a full documentary about the oil spill:
And led me to read more about an incident closer to home (an oilspill in Mindoro Island, Philippines) that happened in 2023. Surprisingly, I came across a report about it today, which you can find here, stating that the damage is valued at 41.2 billion (Philippine Peso).
It amazes me (and frightens me at the same time) how powerful decision analysis is in helping us make better decisions. However, having the right values and objectives also matters.
From everything I learned today, profit over people is never a good objective.
*Here’s what the Larkin Oil Case Study is about:
Pat Mills was restless. The Oil Spill Contingency Plan Committee was supposed to come up with a concrete proposal for the top management of Larkin Oil, Inc. The committee had lots of time; the CEO had asked for recommendations within three months. This was their first meeting.
Over the past hour, Sandy Wilton and Marty Kelso had argued about exactly what level of resources should be committed to planning for a major oil spill in the company’s main shipping terminal bay.
“Look,” said Sandy, “We’ve been over this so many times. When, and if, an oil spill actually occurs, we will have to move fast to clean up the oil. To do that, we have to have equipment ready to go.”
“But having equipment on standby like that means tying up a lot of capital,” Chris Brown replied. As a member of the financial staff, Chris was sensitive to committing capital for equipment that would be idle all the time and might actually have to be replaced before it was ever used. “We’d be better off keeping extensive records, maybe just a long list of equipment that would be useful in a major cleanup. We need to know where it is, what it’s capable of, what its condition is, and how to transport it.”
“Come to think of it, our list will also have to include information on transportation equipment and strategies,” Leslie Taylor added.
Pat finally stirred. “You know what bothers me? We’re talking about these alternatives, and the fact that we need to do thus and so in order to accomplish such and such. We’re getting the cart before the horse. We just don’t have our hands on the problem yet. I say we go back to basics. First, how could an oil spill happen?”
“Easy,” said Sandy. “Most likely something would happen at the pipeline terminal. Something goes wrong with a coupling, or someone just doesn’t pay attention while loading oil on the ship. The other possibility is that a tanker’s hull fails for some reason, probably from running aground because of weather.”
“Weather may not be the problem,” suggested Leslie. “What about incompetence? What if the pilot gets drunk?”
jessa 