jessa

Reflections on becoming

Can you imagine waking up into a new world order?

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When the tension between the Philippines and China is all over our local news, I can’t help thinking about a changing world order after learning about hegemonies from my friends versed in international relations.

What is hegemony?

Hegemony refers to the dominance of one state or group over others, which can manifest in various forms, including political, military, economic, and cultural influence. In international relations, hegemonic stability theory posits that a single dominant power (the hegemon) can create a stable international order by providing public goods, such as security and trade, thereby influencing the behavior of other states.

(definition generated from GPT-4o Mini)

So what does the tension between the Philippines and China have to do with hegemony? I asked GPT-4o Mini to provide a response:

China’s Hegemonic Aspirations

  1. Regional Influence:
    • China seeks to establish itself as the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region, asserting its claims over the South China Sea and expanding its influence over neighboring countries.
    • The “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is an example of China’s efforts to enhance its economic and political influence through infrastructure investment and development projects in various countries, including those in Southeast Asia.
  2. Military Build-Up:
    • China’s military modernization and expansion, particularly in the South China Sea, are aimed at reinforcing its territorial claims and projecting power in the region. This military presence is seen as a challenge to the existing balance of power and the U.S.-led order.
  3. Sovereignty Assertions:
    • China’s assertiveness in asserting sovereignty over disputed territories is a key component of its hegemony strategy, aiming to reshape regional norms and influence the behavior of smaller states.

U.S. Response and Hegemonic Stability

  1. Countering Chinese Hegemony:
    • The U.S. opposes China’s growing influence in the South China Sea and supports the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations in asserting their rights. This is part of a broader strategy to maintain its own hegemonic status in the region.
    • Through military alliances, such as the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, and conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), the U.S. aims to counterbalance China’s assertiveness and uphold international maritime laws.
  2. Strategic Partnerships:
    • The U.S. is strengthening its alliances in the Indo-Pacific, partnering with countries like Japan, India, and Australia to create a coalition that can collectively respond to China’s regional ambitions. This is indicative of a strategy to maintain a multipolar balance of power rather than allowing China to achieve hegemony.
  3. Promoting a Rules-Based Order:
    • The U.S. advocates for a rules-based international order, emphasizing international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This approach challenges China’s unilateral claims and actions in the South China Sea that contradict established norms.

Text generated from GPT-4o Mini.

Waking up in a world where China’s ascent to power challenges a stable ruling power makes me wonder what the future would look like.

And what would this power competition look like?

From Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?:

Scenario Overviews

Although the scenarios were published four years ago (in 2020), I feel like I am living in a moment where these forecast scenarios are unfolding. Perhaps not in a definite sense but as a combination of everything futurists have come up with.

I hope that as the world order changes from one power to the next, it will be inclusive and beneficial for all. I’ve never experienced war (though some have), and I hope I will never go through it with my unborn children.

The prospect of a war breaking out between two or more of the major powers is no longer unimaginable.

Perspectives on a Changing World Order

The world will become more unstable and dangerous if the practice of multilateralism is replaced by narrow, nationalistic approaches.

Perspectives on a Changing World Order


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